COMMENT: Why Helen Zille Was Wrong About SA's Future

Why Helen Zille has been fundamentally wrong about South Africa

The ANC have destroyed SA, and for as long as they govern, it cannot be saved. For years, Helen Zille has used a diagram of triangle to illustrate South African politics. Here it is:

Helen argues that the DA and the EFF are the polar extremes of South African politics and that the ANC is a broad political church. She accepts that the DA can never gain a majority, but she believes that the ANC can be split. The DA can then work with the 'good ANC' and form a successful government.

In this theory, the values of the DA are shared by the 'good ANC'. Whilst this political formation may end up with a different name, it will be ultimately be implementing DA policy. Radical solutions like Cape Independence or WC federal autonomy are not needed because all of SA can be saved.

When the ANC fell below 50% and the GNU was formed, Helen's theory was put to the test.

The 'good ANC' prevailed choosing the DA over the EFF as their coalition partners. So far, so good. However, instead of the ANC adopting DA policy, the DA was instead forced to implement ANC policy under threat of the only other alternative, an MK/EFF/ANC coalition government.

The DA has zero leverage & has no way to impose itself of the ANC.

The 'bad ANC' would rather be working with the EFF & MK in the first place. Even if it wants to (and it I don't believe that it does), the 'good ANC' cannot accede to the DA's wishes without collapsing the GNU by losing the support of its own party who would then force it into into a coalition with the MK & EFF.

The harsh reality, however unpalatable to the DA, is this:

The DA represents a minority constituency; ethnic minorities, cultural minorities, & most importantly of all, ideological minorities. Only 4% of black voters vote DA. There is no realistic prospect whatsoever of the DA being able to deliver the policies which its voters want at a national level.

The majority of South African voters want African Nationalism, race-based policies, and socialist government. Because they will always be in the majority, this is how SA will continue to be governed for the foreseeable future. Nothing will change and South Africa will continue its decline.

There is only one viable solution for minorities, to claim their right to self-determination and govern themselves

Self-determination is an unquestionable right to which all people are entitled (including South Africa's minorities). It can be claimed in various ways including independence, federalism, or greater autonomy. To date, the DA have actively resisted asserting this right, opting instead for Zille's theory

The Referendum Party believes that the a unitary state with a single dominant central government is not viable in a country as diverse as South Africa. It means that that almost everyone is not being governed according to their democratic will, which differs significantly from region to region and across cultures.

Instead, different groups must be allowed to make their own decisions about how and by whom they are governed. Everyone will gain from this approach. Should they then so wish, the different groups can work together for the greater good on term of their own choosing.